California politely asked EV owners not to charge their cars between 5pm and 10pm last year while the weather was hot. This winter one state had problems with supply because of more frequent daytime use of fast charge points.
There are an estimated 250m cars in the USA. So 2m EV sales is a drop in the ocean. What will be the generating requirements to support even 150m EVs?
Your first article mentions loss by evaporation from tire heating for some of the losses. The second article also mentions evaporation of some tire chemicals. The third article doesn’t even discuss mechanisms or much concern about about what tire loss is composed from.
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I'd read about this but came away with a different take. As strong and light as carbon fibre but about 20% of carbon in manufacture. Article I read said it would be incinerated not recycled. But because it was flax, overall, 'neutral'. But that was 4 or 5 years ago.
Cavedriver,
You are absolutely correct!
My car is 4620 Lbs with maximum load; 3993 Lbs with just me in it. It seats up to 5 people. I admit, I was shocked when I checked the weight.
Many people can not afford any kind of car, and certainly not a Mercedes or Tesla.
The power shortage is the power grid, it is not the home's electric panel.
Most homes in my area do have enough power to charge overnight, But Only if you pull the plug on your clothes dryer, or electric stove.
You plug your EV cable into one of those outlets, or you will not be charged in time to go to work. 120V outlets . . . Baaa!
We do not all drive on flat land, and we do not all live in moderate temperature land . . . EV Electric heating, and Electric air conditioning takes some of the EV's battery power.
Good News . . . You can have your house rewired with a proper high current 220V outlet dedicated to the EV.
More electric power demands:
Oh, electric stoves . . . yes. More and more cities and states are forbidding any new home construction that uses gas stoves. Going all electric now.
Many legislatures solve age old problems, without thinking about the complete effects that occur from such legislation.
Two steps forward, and 3 steps back.
You are absolutely correct!
My car is 4620 Lbs with maximum load; 3993 Lbs with just me in it. It seats up to 5 people. I admit, I was shocked when I checked the weight.
Many people can not afford any kind of car, and certainly not a Mercedes or Tesla.
The power shortage is the power grid, it is not the home's electric panel.
Most homes in my area do have enough power to charge overnight, But Only if you pull the plug on your clothes dryer, or electric stove.
You plug your EV cable into one of those outlets, or you will not be charged in time to go to work. 120V outlets . . . Baaa!
We do not all drive on flat land, and we do not all live in moderate temperature land . . . EV Electric heating, and Electric air conditioning takes some of the EV's battery power.
Good News . . . You can have your house rewired with a proper high current 220V outlet dedicated to the EV.
More electric power demands:
Oh, electric stoves . . . yes. More and more cities and states are forbidding any new home construction that uses gas stoves. Going all electric now.
Many legislatures solve age old problems, without thinking about the complete effects that occur from such legislation.
Two steps forward, and 3 steps back.
Rubber is a liquid at the start. Things are added such as sulfur to make a tire. Tires heat up in use. Some of the rubber boils off.
Inhaling rubber gas or dust is not a good thing.
The claim is being made that more auto air pollution is being made by the tires than other sources.
Now if you drive a set of tires from new to worn out they may weigh about 10 pounds less than when new. Do you think you drove that distance on less than 10 pounds of gasoline? Less than the electricity generated by 10 pounds of coal? (You can increase that to 20 pounds if you allow that up to half of the electricity no longer comes from coal.)
The goal is that if you need personal transportation, perhaps the lowest fuel consumption vehicle is best for the world. Driving a big SUV is wasteful, but frequently justified by “l need the space when…). Ignoring the idea of renting something suitable for the occasion.
Me I drive what is now considered a full size car, but used to be of of a size labeled “compact.” I will drive it until it is no longer economical to do so. I expect that to be more than 200,000 miles like my last auto. I keep my tires properly inflated and use a premium oil. In my city driving I get better than 25 miles to the gallon. Open road can go as high as 40 MPG depending on the road.
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I would encourage everyone to have a look at the energy flow graphs for the US published by Lawrence Livermore National Labs or the DOE. (https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/sites/flowcharts/files/2023-10/US Energy 2022.png) The scope of the problem is truly staggering. As of 2022, the last year of fully compiled data, about 13% of our total energy input emerges as electricity. The transportation sector uses about 27.5% of the total energy input. According to the DOE, cars and light trucks consume approximately 50% of the transportation energy. Here is an extremely concerning number though - only .02% of electricity generated goes into transportation. If we convert only cars and light trucks to electric, then we will need to roughly double our electrical generating capacity, and the part that is often overlooked, our transmission capacity. Many parts of the grid, particularly in the Southeast, are already running at 70 to 90% capacity.
This discussion does not address the other sectors of our economy, namely, industrial, commercial, and residential. All of these are solvable problems, although I expect the timetable to look more like 50 years than 10.
This discussion does not address the other sectors of our economy, namely, industrial, commercial, and residential. All of these are solvable problems, although I expect the timetable to look more like 50 years than 10.
Safety in a collision is much more complex than the material it is made of.
Carbon fibre is pretty good at surviving high speed dramatic crashes in autoracing.
But alos a lot more use of aluminium.
dave
Yes, no doubt there will be growing pains, but actual outages? In fairness, the US electrical grid will have to grow significantly, but there's nothing to say its impossible or unmanageable, easily a smaller task than America creating an entire war industry going into WWII that went from near nothing to cranking out millions of planes and millions of tanks in less than 4 years. Note that one of the largest solar cell manufacturers, Waaree from India, just started building a panel factory in Texas that is slated to make 5 GW of panels per year. Neglecting distribution losses that's over 800,000 EV's, and that will be per year. Even assuming worst case distribution losses (reported average is 5%), this is still over 750,000 EV's per year, and this is just one manufacturer. Solar is, and will continue to be cheaper than almost everything else, although it does become less competitive when the corresponding amount of battery storage is built.
I use to be really down on solar (nuclear rules), I mean, how could a technology with only 20% efficiency ever replace other methods of generation? What changed my mind were two realizations. The first is that despite the low efficiency, the cost of panels have come way down to where they are cheaper than building almost everything else. The other is the math on how much land does it really take. To supply the entire world with only solar energy is completely viable- it would take an area roughly equal to the size of Spain. That may seem like a lot, but when you consider the size of the Sahara, it's trivial. The entire US power generation demands would fit on empty lands in the corners in Texas, NM, and AZ. In addition, the Chinese have built and are demonstrating that ultra-high voltage power lines can efficiently transmit power over 2000 miles, allowing us to generate power where we have maximum solar efficiency and send it to any part of the country.
I'm the uk, last I looked the national grid who are doing the planning for grid and generating capacity think that for 2050 we'll need north of 285-387GW capacity. We currently have around 76GW so it'll have to at least treble along with the grid build out, substations etc.
Terrifying how much work there is to do, and how easy some people think it'll be. Here in the UK we can't even build a railway line any more...
Yeah I'm aware of that.
Very good actually. But what's the budget for building a race car? It's a LOT.
jeff
Technically, possibly. But utterly impossible too. Which government would agree to have their countries entire existence in the Sahara...
Planet 10,
You said:
"California had grid and supply issues before EVs."
That gives energy planners the right to add even more load on the power grid, in order to 'fix' the problem.
Sounds like some planners may have just got their fix.
3 steps back.
“Those who do not know History, are bound to make things worse than ever”
You said:
"California had grid and supply issues before EVs."
That gives energy planners the right to add even more load on the power grid, in order to 'fix' the problem.
Sounds like some planners may have just got their fix.
3 steps back.
“Those who do not know History, are bound to make things worse than ever”
As repeatedly pointed out, the purchase and ownership of the Tesla is dramatically lower cost than the Mercedes. By my estimates a Model 3 LRAWD is less than the cost of a $35,000 car, which is a very common price these days for a lower middle class car purchase. For example, a Honda Accord EX costs $31k base and a Ford F150, the most commonly purchased vehicle, starts at over $35k. I gave the Mercedes for it's comparable size, weight, perceived market (ie- "near luxury"). The Tesla interior certainly isn't up to the level of an E-class, but it competes ok with base model C-class Mercedes, and for people that like the minimalist aesthetic the Tesla can feel luxurious. It beats the Honda and F150.
Where do you "most homes"? What area? typical US breaker panels have a minimum of 100 amp service, many have 150 or 200. 100 amp will run your AC (3 tons is 20 amps), dryer (30 amp breaker, load is less), and charge your Tesla all at the same time (30 amps). If you have resistance electric heat then the house probably doesn't have only 100 amp service. Honestly I've never seen a house with only 100 amp service but if it's a small house in the US southeast it very well could be, but it's pretty rare afaik.
omg, land is not flat. again, what are you on about? EV's use energy to drive down the road and to run HVAC, etc. What is the point?
I very much doubt that new construction is getting electric stoves without 150 amp service (or more) unless it's an apartment in an apartment building.
Yup. Depending on where you are it's virtually no brainer territory. I've been looking at an installation in Spain that'll pretty much give independence from the grid and will pay for itself in no more than 5 or 6 years...
There is a viable question there regarding security. The Chinese worry that their UHV lines, which run from northwestern China, where wind and solar energy is plentiful, to SE China where all the people and industrialization is, could be an easy target for attack. They have heavily invested in this concept, and as a result there are not multiple lines following more than one corridor, but just like an oil or gas pipeline, it's possible that the lines could be attacked. Keep in mind these are not undersea lines like the gas lines from Russia to Europe, that are hard to protect. Any attack on the lines would need explosives or other major resources because the towers are enormous, and they are of course on Chinese land. The Sahara-to-Europe route is trickier. SE europe could use lines running across the middle east, but since that's one nonstop war zone it's hard to justify major infrastructure there. Spain alone could handle a big portion of the EU, but I admit that the semi-arid plains of southern Spain are kind of beautiful and it would be a pity to fill them with solar panels. Morocco is relatively stable compared to it's neighbors to the east but since it's unlikely to ever join the EU or otherwise tie it's fate to them, yes, it makes sending power from the actual Sahara to Europe difficult. Northern Europe does have a plentiful supply of wind energy and it continues to get built out, need to crunch on how much can be generated there.
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